As the Dodgers look toward an October full of high-stakes games and another attempt to bring a World Series title back to Los Angeles, Tarik Skubal is looking a little farther ahead. After the postseason, the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner will become a free agent — and the Dodgers will have to decide how much they are willing to pay to keep him.
Los Angeles acquired Skubal from the Detroit Tigers at the Aug. 2 trade deadline, giving up three prospects for one of baseball’s most accomplished starting pitchers. The Dodgers did not make the move simply to add another arm for the regular season. It was building toward October, where its goal is a third consecutive championship.
So far, the investment has paid off. Skubal posted a 2.61 ERA across 10 starts with Los Angeles and finished the regular season with seven scoreless innings against the San Francisco Giants. Now, the Dodgers are handing him the ball for Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves.
But Skubal’s October is unfolding alongside a much larger question: what happens when it ends?
Because the Dodgers acquired Skubal during the season, they did not acquire his long-term rights. He is set to enter free agency after the World Series, allowing him to negotiate with Los Angeles or any other team willing to meet his price. Players acquired in this way, shortly before free agency, are often described as “rentals” — players a team brings in for the remainder of a season with no guarantee they will return. For the Dodgers, the ideal return on that investment would be another championship. If Skubal helps deliver a third consecutive title, the prospects it gave up for a few months of his services could look like a worthwhile price.
That price could be among the largest ever for a pitcher. ESPN recently asked 27 MLB insiders to project Skubal’s next contract. Their estimates ranged from $176 million over four years to $500 million over 10 years, with an average projection of $355 million over eight years. Most of the predictions landed between $325 million and $400 million.
The clearest comparison for Dodgers fans is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Before the 2024 season, Los Angeles signed him to a $325 million contract, setting the record for the largest guaranteed contract given to a pitcher in free agency. MLB now identifies that deal as the benchmark Skubal could surpass this offseason.
Skubal’s case for a larger contract is straightforward: he has won two consecutive Cy Young Awards and remains one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. But there is risk in paying a 30-year-old pitcher hundreds of millions of dollars, particularly one with a history of elbow procedures. That combination — elite production and long-term uncertainty — will shape the bidding for him this winter.
And Skubal will not be navigating that market alone. His agent, Scott Boras, represents some of baseball’s highest-paid players and has negotiated several record-setting contracts. Boras will be responsible for helping Skubal determine not only how much he should seek, but what kind of contract makes the most sense — whether that means pursuing a shorter deal with a higher annual salary or building in options that give Skubal more control over his future. His strategy could play a significant role in determining where Skubal ultimately lands.
For now, though, Skubal’s value is being tested where the Dodgers need it most: October. His starts will give Los Angeles a closer look at what it has in the biggest games of the season — something the team will have to consider when deciding whether a long-term commitment makes sense.
But by the time the Dodgers’ season ends, the decision will no longer belong entirely to Los Angeles. Skubal and Boras will take that October experience into a market where multiple teams could be willing to pay for the same thing the Dodgers traded for in August: a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.
The Dodgers have Skubal through October. After that, they will have to decide what he is worth — and Skubal will have to decide whether their number is enough to keep him on the West Coast.
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